SafariSpinSafari| Rubber supply expectations delayed, crude oil macro atmosphere is short
editor 2024-05-27 10:59:40 Nature 23
[rubber]
This Friday, the domestic Shanghai glue futures 2409 contract showed a shrinking volume and reducing positions, pushing higher and falling, and the shock was too strong.SafariSpinSafariThe trend, the center of gravity of midday prices slightly moved up to 15000 yuan / ton first-line operation. The closing price closed up slightly by 0%.SafariSpinSafari.67% to 15025 yuan / ton. The discount range of the monthly difference between September and January has slightly increased to 1180 yuan / ton. Due to the constraints of drought in overseas Southeast Asia, supply is expected to be delayed, downstream demand is still good, Shanghai glue futures 2409 contract is expected to maintain a volatile trend.
[methanol]
On Friday, the domestic methanol futures 2409 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume and reducing positions, fluctuating slightly, rising as high as 2622 yuan / ton, as low as 2589 yuan / ton, and closing up slightly at the close of trading.SafariSpinSafari.12% to 2600 yuan / ton. The range of water rise from September to January was slightly increased to 73 yuan / ton. With the early profit factors being digested, the methanol futures 2409 contract is expected to maintain a weak trend in the future under the background of the macro atmosphere turning to the short-term pattern again.
[crude oil]
On Friday, domestic crude oil futures 2407 contracts showed a trend of shrinking volume and increasing positions, fluctuating slightly, with futures prices as low as 596.1 yuan per barrel, rising as high as 611.1 yuan per barrel, and closing slightly lower at 0.93 per cent to 599.0 yuan per barrel. Due to the hawkish tone released by the minutes of the Fed's May meeting, crude oil futures are expected to remain volatile and weak in the air.
1. Industrial trends
Rubber
As of the week of May 17, 2024, the general trade warehouse inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao area was 345400 tons, a decrease of 13400 tons, or 3.72%, compared with the previous period. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 108200 tons, a decrease of 3800 tons, or 3.41%, compared with the previous period. Combined, their inventories reached 453600 tons, a slight decrease of 17200 tons from the previous week, the eighth consecutive week of decline.
As of the week of May 24, 2024, the start-up load of all-steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 66.10%, a slight increase of 3.20 percentage points from the previous week and a slight decrease of 0.58 percentage points from the same period last year. The starting load of semi-steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 80.80%, up 4.30% from the previous week and 3.49% from the same period last year.
According to the latest issue of China Automobile Dealers inventory early warning Index Survey released by the China Automobile Circulation Association, the inventory early warning index of Chinese car dealers in April 2024 was 59.4%, down 1.0% from a year earlier and up 1.1% from a month earlier. The inventory early warning index is above the boom and bust line, and the automobile circulation industry is in a depressed range.
In April 2024, China's heavy truck market sold about 87000 vehicles (invoice caliber, including exports and new energy), down 25 percent from March, up 5 percent from 83000 in the same period last year, and a net increase of about 4000 vehicles. In the last eight years, 87000 vehicles were higher than in April 2022 (43800) and April 2023 (83100), and lower than them.SafariSpinSafariApril sales of his year. From January to April 2024, China's heavy truck market sold about 360000 models of various types, an increase of 11 percent over the same period last year, or a net increase of 35000 vehicles.
Methanol
As of the week of May 24, 2024, the average domestic methanol operating rate remained at 75.08%, with a slight increase of 1.88% from the previous week and 0.83% from the previous month. Affected by this, the average weekly output of methanol in China reached 1.6544 million tons, with a significant increase of 52000 tons compared with the same period last year, or 121900 tons more than that of the same period last year.
As of the week of May 24, 2024, the domestic formaldehyde utilization rate remained at 29.75%, with a slight drop of 0.22% from the previous week. At the same time, for dimethyl ether, the operating rate was maintained at 15.73%, a slight increase of 1.60% compared with the previous week. The operating rate of acetic acid was maintained at 88.37%, which was 2.42% lower than that of the previous week. The operating rate of MTBE was maintained at 51.76%, with a slight increase of 0.26% compared with the previous week.
As of the week of May 24, 2024, the average start-up load of domestic coal (methanol) olefin plants was 72.67%, a slight increase of 1.93% compared with the previous week. As of May 24, 2024, the domestic methanol-to-olefin futures disk profit is-76 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 79 yuan / ton compared with the previous week.
As of the week of May 24, 2024, the inventory of methanol in ports in East and South China remained at 412000 tons, a slight increase of 1000 tons compared with the previous week, and a sharp decrease of 60500 tons compared with the same period last year. 216000 tons less than the same period last year. Among them, methanol stocks in East China ports reached 318000 tons, a slight increase of 14000 tons compared with the previous week, while methanol stocks in South China ports reached 94000 tons, a slight decrease of 13000 tons compared with the previous week. As of the week of May 23, 2024, China's inland methanol stocks totaled 389400 tons, with a weekly increase of 9400 tons, a slight increase of 24000 tons compared with the previous month, and a slight decrease of 42900 tons compared with the beginning of the year.
Crude oil
As of May 17, 2024, the number of active oil rigs in the United States increased slightly from the previous week to 497. The average daily output of crude oil in the United States is 13.1 million barrels per day, which is unchanged from the previous week, an increase of 900,000 barrels per day compared with the same period last year.
In the week ended May 17, 2024, US crude oil inventories, including strategic reserves, totaled 827.649 million barrels, an increase of 2.82 million barrels over the previous week; US commercial crude oil stocks increased by 1.825 million barrels over the previous week; and US commercial oil stocks increased by 7.495 million barrels. The total volume of refinery processing in the United States averaged 16.482 million barrels per day, an increase of 227000 barrels over the previous week, and the operating rate of refineries was 91.7 percent, an increase of 1.3 percent over the previous week. Crude oil stocks in the closely watched Cushing region of Oklahoma increased by 1.325 million barrels to 36.32 million barrels. In the past week, the US strategic oil reserve has increased by 990000 barrels to 368.804 million barrels.
As of May 14, 2024, the average non-commercial net excess position of WTI crude remained at 203043, a significant decrease of 12401 from the previous week and 80716, or 28.45 per cent, from the April average of 283759. At the same time, as of May 14, 2024, the net overposition of Brent crude oil futures remained at 203237, a sharp decrease of 46490 positions from the previous week, or 104718, or 34 per cent, from the April average of 307955. Overall, the net long position in WTI crude oil futures market decreased significantly month-on-month, while the net long position in Brent crude oil futures market also decreased significantly.
two。 Spot price list
3. Related chart