cgebetlivebingo| PTA-MEG arbitrage strategy: The oil-coal price ratio is stabilizing and supply and demand are adjusted. It is recommended to reduce the number of long-TA short EG positions.
editor 2024-05-22 09:53:29 Nature 27
News summary
Oil and coal prices stabilizecgebetlivebingo, weakened after its April high but slowed down. Demand for PTA and MEG fell month-on-month, and supply was tight in the short term but expected to increase. It is recommended to reduce the holding of multiple TA short EG positions.
Newsletter text
[PTA-MEG arbitrage strategy needs to be adjusted urgently]
[The trend of oil-coal price is gradually stabilizing] Since the oil-coal price hit its peak during the year in early April, due to the correction in crude oil prices and coal prices,cgebetlivebingoThe price has accelerated downward since mid-April. Although crude oil prices turned volatile in May and coal prices rose further, the oil-coal price still showed a downward trend, but the rate of decline slowed down.
[Demand for PTA and ethylene glycol declined month-on-month] Since May, due to factors such as technical rectification, maintenance and production reduction, a total of 8 polyester units involving a production capacity of approximately 3.3 million tons, and the polyester operating rate dropped to 88cgebetlivebingo.5%, a decrease of nearly 5 percentage points from the high point.
[The supply of PTA and MEG is tightening in the short term but is expected to increase] Recently, the new unit of Yizheng Chemical Fiber (300) reached full production, Honggang Petrochemical (250) resumed operation on the 21st, and Yisheng New Materials (360) is expected to restart in early June, which will lead to rapid growth in PTA production. At the same time, the operating rate of ethylene glycol is also increasing and is expected to increase moderately.
[Recommended to reduce the number of TA short EG positions] The price difference between PTA and MEG is facing adjustment pressure. The contract price difference in September is currently 1390 yuan/ton, which is higher than the average level for the year. As the oil-coal price continues to weaken, the downward momentum of the price difference between PTA and MEG still exists. On the supply side, PTA may recover faster than MEG, so investors are advised to adjust their multi-TA short EG positions.