scratchmoneyclicker| Key holiday express delivery 丨 Heavy meetings release positive policy signals; focus on Buffett's shareholders 'meeting; brokerage Nuggets smart driving, quantum encryption
editor 2024-05-05 12:36:48 Nature 23
(一)重磅消息
1、5月4日scratchmoneyclicker,伯克希尔・哈撒韦股东大会上,当被问及伯克希尔为何削减其对苹果scratchmoneyclicker的头寸时,巴菲特表示,这是出于税收原因,因为这项投资获得了可观的收益,而不是出于他对该股的长期判断。他还表示,这可能与他个人观点有关――美国税率会提高,以资助不断膨胀的美国财政赤字。
2、谈及海外投资,巴菲特表示,伯克希尔的主要投资仍将聚焦在美国。被问及对生成式人工智能的看法时,巴菲特表示:“我对人工智能一无所知。无法对AI的前景进行估计,它拥有极大的潜力,但它的发展令我感到紧张。”
3、谈及伯克希尔的巨额现金储备,巴菲特表示,Q1季度结束时,现金和国库券总额为1820亿美元。在本季度末,我们的现金和国库券将达2000亿美元,这是一个合理的假设。
4、谈及未来动向,巴菲特表示,不会再进行大量的股票购买,因为很多公司也不会以大数额来进行股票的销售发行。巴菲特还表示,他们投资理念的最基本原则是格雷厄姆的理论。
(二)券商最新研判
浦银国际证券:重磅会议释放积极政策信号,有助于市场情绪回暖
4月30日的重磅会议释放积极政策信号,有望改善市场情绪。会议指出“经济持续回升向好仍面临诸多挑战”,降低了政策刺激突然退出的可能性。除了重申继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策并强调落实之外,对房地产支持政策的表述是一大亮点,后续期待推出更多消化存量房产和优化增量住房的具体措施。
目前中国市场估值仍处于低位,上证综指和恒指的前瞻市盈率分别为11倍/9倍,均低于过去5年均值。重磅会议后,如果后续相应的支持政策持续落地,将有利于持续提振市场情绪,市场有望企稳回升。
会议强调,“要结合房地产市场供求关系的新变化、人民群众对优质住房的新期待,统筹研究消化存量房产和优化增量住房的政策措施。”预计下阶段重点或将消化存量房地产和优化增量住房,促使房地产行业良性复苏。短期或利好核心城市储备充沛、经营稳健的房企的估值修复。
会议指出,“要积极扩大国内需求,落实好大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新行动方案。”建议关注建材、医疗设备等重点领域,以及汽车产业链、家居产业链、电子、体育用品、酒店、旅游等消费领域。
此外,会议还指出,“要加强国家战略科技力量布局,培育壮大新兴产业,超前布局建设未来产业,运用先进技术赋能传统产业转型升级。要积极发展风险投资,壮大耐心资本”。先进制造、新能源、人工智能+机器人(300024)、生物科技、航空航天及低空经济等行业,有望成为中国经济增长的新引擎,建议可以逢低布局相关行业和龙头公司。
华金证券:政策靠前发力,新质生产力是主线
4月30日召开的重磅会议,分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。对市场趋势的影响偏正面,A股可能因此进一步震荡上行。
会议重点强调靠前发力有效落实已确定的政策、超长期国债及早发行、以旧换新和设备更新政策落实等对基建投资、制造业投资和消费增速均有可能提升;另一方面提出消化存量房产和房地产高质量发展,有利于提升地产销售和投资增速预期。
长期维度上,会议强调宏观政策取向的一致性,显示财政发力下,货币政策将配合性宽松;强调要灵活运用利率、存款准备金率等政策工具。会议也可能提振风险偏好,会议强调政策要靠前发力、有效落实,打消了市场对财政发力的担忧;对地产的定调超预期宽松,消减了市场对经济增长的担忧;三中全会聚焦经济发展,也提振情绪。
对行业配置的影响:新质生产力相关的TMT、电新、汽车、机械、家电和地产、地产产业链等可能受益。会议重点强调因地制宜发展新质生产力,指向超前布局建设未来产业,相关的TMT、电新、机械、医药等行业可能受益;另一方面,指向运用先进技术赋能传统产业转型升级,相关的有色、化工、机械等行业可能受益。扩大内需相关的电新、家电、汽车、食品饮料等行业可能受益。
(三)券商行业掘金
民生证券:新势力销量稳健,智能驾驶加速落地
5月车市蓄势待发,以旧换新+北京车展有望提振需求。据乘联会数据,4月狭义乘用车零售市场预计为160scratchmoneyclicker.0万辆左右,同比减少1scratchmoneyclicker.5%,环比减少5.3%。新能源零售预计72.0万辆左右,与上月持平,同比增加37.1%,渗透率预计可达45.0%。4月消费者对于政策和车展新车有预期,因此观望情绪浓厚,随着4月底以旧换新政策的出台和北京车展的开幕,消费者对车市的关注度提高,有望刺激前期压抑的购车需求加速释放。
各车企加速智驾落地,有望强化消费者认证。小鹏和华为系为代表的车企2024年以来持续进行智驾的迭代及推广。小鹏4月份XNGP智能辅助驾驶系统已全量覆盖全国260个城市,开城范围持续扩大中。3月问界全量推送无图城区NCA领航,智驾能力行业领先,车型上市放量后有望带动高阶自动驾驶渗透率快速提升。
标配智驾时代已来,能找准差异化卖点、智能驾驶技术领先的头部车企将在2024~2025年形成差异化,并享受估值溢价。
Electric intelligence reshapes order, high-quality independent parts suppliers get more matching by virtue of performance-to-price ratio and rapid response ability, accelerate the process of globalization, and break the pattern of foreign capital monopoly. It is suggested to pay attention to the new power industrial chain. Huawei industrial chain includes Huguang shares, Ruihu Mould, Wencan shares (603348), etc.; Xiaomi industrial chain includes Wuxi Zhenhua, Jingwei Hengrun, Jifeng shares (603997) and so on.
Tianfeng Securities: quantum encryption, a new blue sea
With the acceleration of the quantum technology competition, it is necessary to consider the migration of classical ciphers to PQC (quantum soft encryption): in December 2023, IBM launched a quantum computer with more than 1000 qubits. In early April 2024, Microsoft also cooperated with quantum computing and made a great breakthrough in fault tolerance.
QKD hard encryption is suitable for specific scenarios, and PQC (quantum soft encryption) is expected to achieve wide coverage: QKD quantum key distribution is a secure way of key transmission, which is based on physical principles and requires special physical equipment, which can send keys between two distant communication terminals. PQC is a new generation of cryptographic algorithms that can resist the attacks of quantum computing on existing cryptographic algorithms. It studies the security of cryptographic algorithms in quantum environment and designs cryptographic systems that are secure in both classical and quantum environments.
The American PQC (Quantum soft encryption) acceleration standard has been established in 2024, which requires the migration of cryptographic systems to be completed by 2023. In addition, Europe, Japan and South Korea have made related research and progress in PQC migration and standard establishment. In order to meet the security challenges brought by the development of quantum computing in the United States, the development and pilot of quantum cryptography in China may be accelerated to replace classical cryptographic algorithms.
From the perspective of replacement rhythm, the financial industry, especially banks, as an important field of the national economy, involves a large number of core data and transaction information. Compared with other industries, it is expected to take corresponding measures to transition to the post-quantum cryptosystem earlier. Replacement acceleration, the market size is expected to be about 70 billion yuan in 2029. With reference to the progress of replacement in the United States, the cryptographic products invested in China in the past few years may be replaced by PQC quantum encryption products in the next five years. According to Inside Quantum Technology estimates, the market for quantum cryptographic software and chips is expected to reach $9.5 billion, or about 68.9 billion yuan, after 2029.
The quantum industry may become the next stop of the global science and technology competition. It is suggested to focus on three major directions: quantum security, quantum computing, and quantum measurement. Quantum encryption includes Xinan Century, Guodun Quantum, Shenzhou Information (000555), etc.; Quantum Computing includes Guodun Quantum, Puyuan Fine Power, Kehua data, etc.; Quantum Measurement includes Keguochuang (300520), Tianao Electronics (002935).
Daily economic news