deuceswildgame| Zheshang Securities (601878): Good fundamentals and quality, pay attention to the progress of equity acquisition of Guodu Securities
editor 2024-05-01 12:36:55 Home 55
EventDeuceswildgameZheshang Securities released its quarterly report for 2024, which is better than expected (the profit is-18% compared with the same period last year). 1Q24 realized net profit 4Deuceswildgame.500 million / yoy-8%, revenue 38Deuceswildgame.80 million / yoy-21%. Weighted average ROE (non-annualized) is 1.64%/yoy-0.21pct. The overall performance is better than that of the same industry, and the performance of the asset management business is outstanding. Revenue split: 1Q24 brokerage, investment bank, asset management, net interest and net investment income are 5.3,1.5,1.1,1.5 and 460 million yuan respectively, accounting for 37.6%, 10.6%, 7.7%, 10.7% and 32.7% respectively, which are + 24%,-35%, + 60%,-7% and-23% respectively compared with the same period last year. The scale of investment remained stable and the rate of return declined from a high base. Investment leverage (investment assets / net assets) 1.83x/yoy-0.01x/qoq-0.07x at the end of the period, of which the financial investment scale is 50.4 billion yuan / yoy+3%/qoq-2%, investment leverage remains stable compared with the previous month.DeuceswildgameThe rate of return on investment has declined at a high base, and it is expected that the stock ownership will be under pressure mainly due to fluctuations in the equity market. It is estimated that the annualized rate of return on investment in 1Q24 is 3.64%/yoy-1.4pct/qoq+2.5pct. The brokerage business follows the market. The company's brokerage business income is 540 million / yoy-5% (due to the adjustment of the company's brokerage business income during the quarter, it is calculated here as the net income of commission and commission minus investment banking and asset management business income), which is expected to be similar to the overall performance of the industry (1Q24 market stock-based ADT + 3.9% year-on-year, considering the decline in commission rate is expected to predict the negative growth of industry brokerage business income). The agreement on the acquisition of part of the equity of Guodu Securities has been signed, and a small boat has sailed through the mountains, paying attention to the progress of the rest of the equity acquisition and the regulatory approval process. 3Company29 announced that it intends to accept 19.15% of the shares of Guodu Securities, and the follow-up main concerns are as follows: 1) there are still 15.1% of shares in Guodu Securities in public listing, and if Zheshang Securities completes the acquisition at the same time, it will hold a total of 34.25% of shares; 2) as the change of major shareholders of securities firms is subject to the approval of the CSRC, the subsequent acquisition by agreement still needs to complete the process of material reception, acceptance, feedback (contingent), approval and so on. Investment analysis: maintain the "highly recommended" rating. Without adjusting the profit forecast for the time being, it is estimated that the net profit of Zhejiang Merchants Securities from 2024 to 2026e will be 1.82 billion yuan, 1.95 billion yuan and 2.13 billion yuan respectively, which is + 4%, + 7% and + 10% respectively compared with the same period last year. The dynamic PB of the 24-26e corresponding to the closing price of the company is 1.61,1.53,1.56 times, respectively, and the dynamic PE is 24,23,21 times. Risk hints: the downward pressure on the economy has increased; the activity of stock-based trading in the market has declined significantly; and the process of residents' funds entering the market has slowed down. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.
[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.