cryptogamesearnmoney| Analysis on the trend of oil futures: Production cuts in southern Brazil have affected the soybean oil market, palm oil export demand has improved, and rapeseed oil may operate in shock
editor 2024-05-26 13:29:31 Home 40
News summary
Market analysis showscryptogamesearnmoneyAffected by Brazil's expected production cuts, the oil market performed strongly. However, due to factors such as the recovery of Malaysian production and abundant soybean supply, the oil market weakened. Under the influence of South American weather, low palm oil inventories in India and China, and the low summer oil consumption season, soybean oil and palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate. In addition, rapeseed production in Ukraine is affected by frost, but Canada's rapeseed producing areas have favorable rainfall, domestic rapeseed supply is loose, and rapeseed oil prices are also volatile. The overall oils and fats market strategy remains neutral and risk-free.
Newsletter text
[The stable performance of the oil futures market and subsequent development still needs to be observed carefully] The oil futures market as a whole showed slight fluctuations this week, with no significant changes. Affected by macro positive conditions and unfavorable weather in Brazil, oil prices performed relatively strongly in the early week. But then, due to factors such as the recovery of Malaysian palm oil production capacity and increased soybean supply, oil prices gradually fell.
[The soybean oil market is affected by multiple factors, making it more difficult for prices to move upwards] Although the U.S. Department of Agriculture's May supply and demand report was neutral, the market responded positively to the reduction in production caused by the flood disaster in southern Brazil, and the market is still digesting this positive factor. However, given concerns about the planting schedule in the United States and the accumulation of soybean stocks at domestic ports, the soybean oil market faces greater difficulties in rising.
[Rising palm oil production and increased inventory pressure have led to weakening prices] According to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil production increased significantly in the first 20 days of May, indicating that production may continue to grow in the next two months. However, low palm oil inventories in India and China may increase imports due to improved import profits, thus providing certain support for exports from the origin.
[The rapeseed oil market has been affected by multiple factors and increased price volatility] Frosts in Ukraine have caused concerns about rapeseed production, prompting ICE rapeseed prices to fluctuate strongly. Although rapeseed production in Ukraine has decreased, rapeseed prices have received some support due to increased demand in Europe. At the same time, rainfall in Canada's prairie rapeseed producing areas is conducive to alleviating drought, but the progress of spring sowing still needs to be evaluated.
[Strategy shows neutral risk assessment is zero] Considering the current comprehensive situation of the oil market, the current trading strategy remains neutral. At the same time, according to current market analysis, the risk assessment is zero, and investors should pay close attention to subsequent market developments and make prudent decisions.