freespinsnodepositrequiredkeepyourwinnings| Huang Tao of Chuangjin Hexin Fund: Currently optimistic about strategic investment opportunities in A shares and Hong Kong stocks
editor 2024-04-29 11:00:51 Finance 27
The writer is Huang Jie, director of equity investment and research headquarters of Chuangjin Hexin Fund.
The market continued its upward trend last week, with the Shanghai 50 index up 1.Freespinsnodepositrequiredkeepyourwinnings.28%, the CSI 300 index rose 1.Freespinsnodepositrequiredkeepyourwinnings.20%, the CSI 500 index rose 1.08%, and the gem index rose 3.86%. Overseas markets rebounded steadily last week, including the Dow Jones Industrial average up 0.67%, the S & P 500 up 2.67%, the NASDAQ up 4.23%, and the Hang Seng Index up 8.80%.
Last week, among the 31 first-tier industries in Shenwan, 21 industries rose and 10 industries fell, of which the top five were computers, non-bank finance, beauty care, electronics and communications, up 5.78%, 5.37%, 5.21%, 5.21% and 4.86%, respectively, followed by coal, petrochemical, iron and steel, non-ferrous metals and textiles and clothing. It fell by 7.00%, 3.57%, 2.64%, 2.04% and 1.22% respectively.
Last week, the biggest change in the market came from overseas. Us stocks rebounded after two consecutive weeks of sharp falls, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index ushered in a long-lost rally. The Hang Seng Technology Index posted its biggest weekly gain in nearly five years, second only to October 2022, reaching 13.43%.
For a long timeFreespinsnodepositrequiredkeepyourwinningsI often hear the envy of the sellers or buyers around me about the performance of US stocks, which in many people's subconscious is a perpetual motion machine that can cycle and strengthen itself. The dollar and US debt have the advantage of global uniqueness, but if printing money alone can sustain US consumption, the US economy, and the US stock market, then the US government will not need to make so much effort to promote the return of manufacturing. There is usually a price to bear behind prosperity, not to mention the prosperity of printing money, not to mention that we recognize the technological strength and profitability of US stocks, but there is no market that does not rise, nor does it rise. This is true of US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and of course A shares. This is the power of mean regression.
No matter in any market, the process of investors' perception of change is basically similar, that is, at the bottom of the bear market, they are firmly bearish because they think that there is no reason for the market to rise, and as the market rebounds, they cannot believe that the market will rise; as the market rises further, begin to think that the reason for the market to rise is not sufficient, and slowly transition to think that there is a reason for the market to rise. Then think that there is a reasonable reason for the market to rise, and finally think that there is no reason not to rise. This process is adjusted step by step with the rise of the market, and the aforementioned view of US stocks is such an evolutionary process. In fact, when the market is the other way around, it is only necessary to replace the word "up" with the word "down". The most responsive to this is the Hong Kong stocks and A shares in the past three or four years.
In the history of securities, this kind of repeated story is really common, but every time without exception, it rises to unbelievable, or falls to unbelievable. Of course, there are very few investors who can really run through the whole process. The problem is that we do not have such strong nerves, and at the same time, we do not have that strong ability to penetrate the fog. The vast majority of investors are just followers of the trend. It performs the function of participating in and magnifying trends and fluctuations, and if there is no change in human nature, then the basic law of mean regression will still be in effect.
If we agree with the basic law, regardless of whether US stocks fall or not, the current A shares and Hong Kong stocks will at least be strategic opportunities. There is no particularly strong reason for the rise of Hong Kong stocks last week. Perhaps we can say that US stocks, European stocks, Japanese stocks and Indian stocks are all high, so are copper and gold, and so are bonds. So many types of assets are as weak as A shares and Hong Kong stocks, and we are all on the same planet. The gap should not be so big.Freespinsnodepositrequiredkeepyourwinnings? This is perhaps the simplest investment logic from the perspective of global allocation.
Along this logic, we can certainly find many supporting reasons, such as the higher-than-expected export of China this year, the surprise of manufacturing investment, the backing of infrastructure investment, the continued trend of recovery in consumption, the continued strong support of policies, and so on. Even in the real estate market, the head of real estate research at UBS Securities has come out to sing more, thinking that the profit has been exhausted and is expected to be repaired. Is this not the emergence of a positive chain? There are still two days of earnings disclosure next week, and in the short term, negative factors such as stock price shocks will also be released.