timeoutarcade| [Correlation Analysis·PX] The logic of highly correlated upstream and downstream demand has gradually increased
editor 2024-05-21 10:54:26 Finance 30
Zhang Hui, an information analyst at Zhuochuang
[introduction] in the past five years, PX has always maintained a high positive correlation with direct raw materials (MX) and downstream (PTA). In 2020, due to the centralized launch of large-scale refining and chemical projects built by the PTA plant with supporting raw materials, the downstream bargaining power was enhanced, cash flow from the PX link to the lower reaches of the industrial chain was channelled, and the profitability of PTA and even polyester products was improved.TimeoutarcadeHowever, since the second half of 2022, driven by the strong demand for oil transfer and the space for arbitrage in the United States and Asia, the upstream sector accounts for a large part of the profits.
There is a high positive correlation between PX and raw material MX, and the fluctuation space of price difference is small.
MX as a direct upstream raw material for the production of PX (1-1 for every 1 ton of PX)Timeoutarcade.05 tons of MX), the correlation coefficient is always maintained at 0.Timeoutarcade.9 or more. According to the historical data of nearly five years, the price difference between PX and upstream product MX fluctuates from 143USD / t to-32USD / t. In 2024, the price difference between the two tends to narrow. According to the analysis of the historical period, most of the time, due to the crude oil market, the correlation between MX and PX increased, showing the same rising and falling trend, and then the price difference fluctuated around the profit-loss line of $1100.00.TimeoutarcadeBut there is an obvious abnormal fluctuation. During the period from May to July in 2022, the price difference between the two significantly narrowed, with the lowest narrowing to-32 yuan / ton (MX-PX price upside down, cost MX price exceeded product PX price). Simply speaking, due to the low US gasoline inventory and the impact of the peak travel season, oil regulation demand increased, and the US-Asia arbitrage space opened, the MX price performance was particularly strong, and the price gap between the two narrowed continuously.
The correlation between PX and downstream PTA decreases year by year, and the fluctuation space of price difference is relatively large.
The PX consumption ratio for producing one ton of PTA is 0.65-0.655 (the new unit is slightly lower) and the acetic acid consumption ratio is 0.030-0.039. From 2020 to 2023, the price correlation coefficients of PX and PTA are 0.94,0.93,0.87,0.86 respectively. According to the historical data of nearly five years, the price difference between PX and downstream product PTA fluctuates from 1065 yuan / ton to-77 yuan / ton. In 2024, the price difference between the two tends to narrow. From a stage-by-stage point of view, since 2020, when PTA entered the second round of rapid capacity expansion cycle in history, the rigid demand for PX has increased, especially under the background of low processing fees for PTA, the fluctuation of PX price will be relatively rapidly transmitted to PTA, and the price difference space will be relatively stable; however, the price trend of PTA in 2023 will be greatly affected by its own supply and demand pattern, and then the price correlation coefficient between PX and PTA gradually decreases. In addition, because the PTA capacity expansion is much larger than the upstream PX and downstream polyester capacity expansion, the processing fee of the PTA plant is compressed, and then the price difference between PX and PTA tends to narrow, so the device changes more frequently, which can also be verified by the frequent unplanned parking of the PTA plant in the second quarter of this year.
The influence of demand transmission is gradually deepened under the full-chain development model.
As the proportion of catalytic reforming integrated units using crude oil as feedstock is more than 90% in China's PX production, most of the direct feedstock MX is matched production, and the direct impact of the rest of the time is not obvious except for the periodic oil regulation demand change and the trigger on the PX price fluctuation. The impact of downstream PTA on PX is mainly the transmission of demand. Since 2023, the PTA industry has entered the second round of centralized capacity expansion cycle, which aggravates the oversupply of PTA, the weak performance of PTA prices and profits, and the enthusiasm of PTA manufacturers to start work. The monthly PTA capacity operation rate reached 69.35% in 2023, and the probability of unplanned reduction and shutdown events increased significantly. As far as this item is concerned, the demand of downstream PTA for PX has decreased. PX inventory reached 800000 tons in the first quarter of 2023, and Asian PX prices fell due to fundamental pressure, thus the cash flow of the industrial chain began to ease downwards. In recent years, under the chain development mode of "oil refining-chemical-polyester" industry, the integrated unit has obvious advantages in production unit consumption and cost fluctuation risk aversion, and the influence of downstream PTA demand transmission on PX is also deepening day by day.
To sum up, through the above transmission logic analysis, it is expected that the impact of direct upstream MX on PX prices in the second half of the year is still not obvious with the end of the peak oil transfer season, while the transmission logic of the impact of downstream PTA demand on PX prices will continue to exist and continue to deepen. In recent years, with the gradual weakening of the expectation of oil regulation demand, the influence of direct feedstock MX on the price of PX has been alleviated obviously. Downstream, the operation stability of PTA plant decreases under the direct influence of low processing fee, but under the background of large capacity base of PTA, there is still a large rigid demand for PX as a whole. After the completion of centralized maintenance of Asian PX plant in the second quarter, the planned maintenance plans for the second half of the year are as follows: parking arrangements for Ningbo Daxie, Fujian Union, Jinling Petrochemical, Formosa Plastics Chemical, Korea Rakuten and Japan. In addition, there is no plan to put in new PX capacity during the year, and the overall supply level is steadily rising, so the supply and demand pattern of PX in the second half of the year is likely to show a tight balance, which has a certain supporting effect on the trajectory of PX prices.