topcryptogamesfreetoplay| Long-end interest rates have not exceeded the shock range: short-end interest rates have a steep trend
editor 2024-05-20 21:54:29 Finance 28
Newsletter summary
This week, market interest rates diverged, short-end, medium-and short-end interest rates were strong, and the curve steepened. Fundamentals improved, inventory cycle bottomed out, and large asset prices rebounded. The technical model of treasury bond interest rate shows a volatile trend, the deposit interest rate is reduced, and the short-end interest rate space is expanded. The duration of net purchases of public funds has decreased, and the curve is expected to show a steep trend. Risk hintTopcryptogamesfreetoplayThe policy exceeded expectations and the fundamentals fluctuated.
Text of news flash
Interest rate differentiation may herald new opportunities in the market [bond market has shown obvious recently.TopcryptogamesfreetoplayIn the phenomenon of interest rate differentiation, long-end and ultra-long-end interest rates are restricted by multiple factors, while short-end and medium-and short-end interest rates show strong performance, and the market curve is gradually steepening.
Economic fundamentals have shown signs of improvement since April, and macro high-frequency indicators have rebounded since April, and monthly economic data have confirmed this improvement, especially in the production sector. Although the financial data show a certain deviation, the possibility of significant weakening in the future is not significant. Policy level continues to release positive signals, the inventory cycle is currently in the bottoming stage, has been a moderate recovery for three consecutive months, the second half of the PPI is expected to show an upward trend, which may lead to an improvement in corporate earnings expectations.
Asset prices have also responded to these positive changes, especially since May, when the prices of many commodities, such as copper and black, have rebounded, while the underlying fundamental expectations of long-end interest rates are relatively cautious.
In terms of investor behavior, the duration form of the fund is gradually approaching the risk area, and the retail investors' willingness to apply for bond funds has increased significantly. The current duration and divergence position is very close to the range of 'high duration and low divergence'. The retail purchase rate of debt base has increased significantly, and the proportion of positions has been further pushed up to near an all-time high. Sentiment indicators, which reached an all-time high in mid-March, are now falling, but there is still expected room for a pullback of about 10 percentage points, which could dampen long-end trading sentiment.
From a technical point of view, the technical model of the interest rate of 10-year treasury bonds shows that since the close of trading on April 7, the volatility signal has first turned empty, and the technical form is more disadvantageous compared with the first quarter.
The certainty of medium-and short-end interest rates is relatively high. On the one hand, short-end and short-term interest rates benefit from the transfer of deposit management. After the prohibition of manual interest payment, the transfer of deposits to financial products has increased, and the demand for medium-and short-end bonds will continue to be strong. On the other hand, non-bank institutions have ample capital and liquidity stratification disappears, which may lead to periodic decoupling of short-end interest rates from DR, opening up room for rise in short-end interest rates. The pace of supply of special treasury bonds is relatively slow, and the periodic disturbance to the capital side will also be more moderate.
Taken together, long-end interest rates are affected by fundamental recovery signals and positive policy expectations, and there have been some marginal changes in the logic that supported the rapid decline in long-end interest rates in the first quarter. With the deposit interest rate falling below the money market policy interest rate, deposits are obviously transferred to non-bank institutions, whose capital cost is inverted to DR, which has actually got rid of the constraint of DR price anchor and promoted the rise of short-end interest rates. From a behavioral point of view, the weekly net purchase duration of public funds has plummeted to 1.Topcryptogamesfreetoplay. 2 years, showing the characteristics of migration to the short end. The future market curve may further show steepening characteristics.
Risk hint: we need to guard against the potential impact of higher-than-expected policies and fundamental fluctuations on the market.